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Space Domain Awareness Demands New “Operational Intelligence” Requirement
Seamless Interaction Between J2 and J3 Vital to Future Military Operations
From satellite imagery to G.P.S.-guided navigation, intelligence gathered from space has long facilitated military operations across warfighting domains. However, after being identified as a warfighting domain in its own right, space is now becoming the latest focus for the intelligence agencies supporting Department of Defense (DOD) operations. As a result, what was previously known as Space Situational Awareness (SSA) has evolved into a much broader Space Domain Awareness (SDA) concept that means the DOD must not only identify objects in space, but also assess and understand their purpose as well. As such, the emerging SDA imperative is blurring the lines between two previously distinct responsibilities – intelligence and operations – into a whole new, integrated mission requirement: operational intelligence.
“Intelligence is the foundational component to all military operations,” said Sean Kirkpatrick, PhD, former deputy director of intelligence at U.S. Space Command and partner at Elara Nova: The Space Consultancy. “You can’t carry out military operations unless you have a full understanding of the threat environment. So enveloping SSA into a broader SDA concept has driven the operational intelligence requirement to a higher level of fidelity and demand for the warfighter, particularly as the amount and timeliness of information needed has grown.”
The Evolution of Space Domain Awareness
According to the Space Domain Awareness Doctrine for Space Forces, SSA was traditionally defined as the operational task for, ‘finding, tracking, identifying and maintaining custody of space objects.’ But as a variety of resident space objects (RSO) increasingly populate the space domain, the demand for intelligence about each one has spawned the much greater SDA imperative.
“Today’s space operating environment is a culmination of technical, geopolitical and commercial factors that are driving an increased need for space domain awareness,” said Dr. Kirkpatrick. “SDA is larger than SSA because now we need to not only identify the RSO, but also its payloads, spectral characteristics and fuel type. We have to determine what country launched it and how they’re using it, which also becomes complicated by the fact that it’s not just militaries, but also commercial companies and civil agencies launching spacecraft as well.”
In the historically benign space environment, intelligence agencies like the National Security Agency (NSA) and the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA) leveraged space-based assets to facilitate military operations across warfighting domains.
“NSA and NGA are single source intelligence collectors for signal intelligence and geospatial intelligence, respectively,” said Dr. Kirkpatrick. “Those two sets of data and reporting are amassed together, along with human intelligence from the Central Intelligence Agency and the Defense Intelligence Agency, to come up with an all-source assessment. That’s how the intelligence community uses a lot of that overhead architecture in space.”
Operational Intelligence in a Hostile Domain
However, their space-based assets can no longer operate without risk in an increasingly hostile space domain.
“Attribution of other resident space objects is vital because they could be debris, natural or even man-made,” said Dr. Kirkpatrick. “If it’s man-made, we need to know who owns the RSO, its intent and capabilities because it may be a threat to our space-based assets. So now we’re in a transition period to take our tools we’ve historically been using from space and applying them to space.”
For Dr. Kirkpatrick, a successful embodiment of operational intelligence would be the capability for intelligence analysts to identify and provide an accurate understanding of every RSO to operators in real-time.
“I use the analogy of a screen that has all the RSOs in any given orbit in real-time,” said Dr. Kirkpatrick. “An analyst could then click on any object and receive a baseball card of all the relevant intelligence associated with it: its thermal characteristics, image structure and spectral distribution, while accounting for any changes occurring in real-time. That information can then be fed into any decision-making tool for the military operators and planners.”
A Cross-Functional J Code Model
This emerging operational intelligence concept, however, is requiring the military structure to adapt.
Historically, the United States has delineated responsibilities according to the J code structure of the Napoleonic model: personnel (J1), intelligence (J2) operations (J3), logistics (J4), strategy, planning and policy (J5) and command and control (J6). The J code structure is designed to ensure seamless communications across agencies and military services conducting corresponding duties.
The space domain, however, is blurring the lines between the previously distinct intelligence (J2) and operations (J3) responsibilities.
“The effectiveness of any organization is defined by how strong the relationship is between the intelligence director (J2) and the operations director (J3),” said Dr. Kirkpatrick. “Military operations can only be executed effectively when the J2 and the J3 are interconnected. So when we stood up the new Space Command, we intentionally designed those units to be co-located at all times.”
The strategic relevance of space-based intelligence and information to facilitate Joint Force operations further exacerbates the need for seamless interaction between the J2 and J3 units.
“Once we stood up the Joint Command, we had to start transitioning to Joint Doctrine to make everything consistent across domains,” said Dr. Kirkpatrick. “What makes this important, for example, is there may be a challenge with custody and tracking of hypersonic weapons for missile warning and defense. As a hypersonic weapon crosses domains, i.e. from air to space or from space to air, there has to be a coordinated hand-off of its custody and tracking.”
Leveraging Emerging Technologies to Address Latency
Achieving this alignment between intelligence and operations in real-time, however, is complicated by the latency in delivering space-based information to the warfighter.
“In space, latency and communications is a problem because if something is happening in cislunar that we don’t understand for several hours, it’s going to be too late to respond accordingly,” said Dr. Kirkpatrick. “Latency is more than just the transit of data from sensor to ground, humans need to be trained to process and understand the data on operationally-relevant timelines. But this can be a manually intensive process, especially given the latency required to analyze, exploit and integrate these large volumes of data together and present it to the Commanders, our Allies and partners.”
Yet, emerging technologies like artificial intelligence and machine-learning (AI/ML) can accelerate latency timelines so intelligence analysts can understand the operational landscape faster.
“As we move forward into AI-enabled autonomous weapons systems, the decision-making cycle for intelligence analysts is going to get faster and faster,” said Dr. Kirkpatrick. “But there’s just not enough people to analyze and understand these overwhelming amounts of data in a time frame relevant to the warfighter, decision-maker or policymaker, because this process encompasses all sources of information: the adversaries’ motivations, capabilities and the operational environment upon which a military operation is about to be planned and executed.”
Commercial Tools to Facilitate Operational Intelligence
Therefore, the Space Force must be able to leverage and utilize the latest technologies developed in the commercial sector – like AI/ML – to generate a better understanding of the space domain.
“Commercial companies have an ability to generate space domain awareness from all sources of information very close to near real-time,” said Dr. Kirkpatrick. “While they may not ascertain intent or geopolitical aspects, it’s going to be beneficial for us to leverage their information and input our own classified information to form a broader picture of the operational landscape, as opposed to trying to generate it all ourselves.”
Strong military-commercial partnerships for operational intelligence can enable the Space Force to not only keep pace with new and emerging technologies, but also to understand how they can be utilized for military operations as well.
“The intelligence community must use novel phenomenology to extract information, whether it’s the electromagnetic spectrum, acoustics or thermal imagery sources,” said Dr. Kirkpatrick. “That means not only inventing a new capability, but also training a team to use these novel capabilities to verify that the information they’re measuring actually matches reality.”
Verification Requirement for Operational Intelligence
As such, verifying the accuracy of new information and capabilities will also become an increasingly significant strategic imperative for the Space Force.
“A lot of commercial data analytic houses are going to apply these emerging technologies to assess probabilities, tracking, characterization and predictive analytics that will enable successful space domain awareness,” said Dr. Kirkpatrick. “Now, the Space Force and Space Command have to figure out how to take those tools and provide verification and validation of that data to ensure we receive the right answers.”
To this end, the Space Force is embarking on a variety of initiatives to incorporate commercial tools in assessing the emerging operational intelligence requirement.
“There’s a number of programs that the Space Force is exploring and investing in, but the best approach is that Space Command set up a catalyst campus in Colorado Springs to bring in commercial partners to try out capabilities against data and operators in the DEVOPS environment,” said Dr. Kirkpatrick. “This will enable the Space Force to quickly transition new capabilities for operational intelligence into the U.S. Space Command.”
Now, as the operational intelligence requirement materializes, Elara Nova is presenting itself as a resource to support the adoption of new and emerging technologies, as well as operating concepts such as operational intelligence and space domain awareness.
“One of the biggest opportunities for Elara Nova is education and advocacy, especially for acquisition,” said Dr. Kirkpatrick. “You can’t build capability if you don’t understand the underlying foundational intelligence that drives it, and you can’t operate it unless you have the domain awareness under which you’re going to operate. Elara Nova partners can address these concerns through analysis and thought leadership to ensure that that understanding is inculcated into the culture of the Space Force.”
Elara Nova is a global consultancy and professional services firm focused on helping businesses and government agencies maximize the strategic advantages of the space domain. Learn more at https://elaranova.com/.