Air Force Engages Industry for New Air Mobility Solutions

Aging Fleets, Evolving Threats Drive Modernization Efforts

For over 75 years, the U.S. Air Force has been able to deploy and sustain forces at a time and place of its choosing, but a series of converging challenges have undermined that ability. Key mobility platforms like the C-5 and C-17 are aging, parts are harder to come by and the long legs required to cover the Pacific consume flight hours faster, shortening the time between maintenance cycles. Meanwhile, integrating new capabilities to outpace an accelerating threat demands additional downtime the fleet can ill afford. In response, the Air Force released a Request for Information (RFI) to acquire a Next-Generation Airlift (NGAL) to replace both platforms, while also engaging industry to study new ways to enhance the survivability of large aircraft like air-refuelers and airlifters. Together, these efforts demonstrate a revitalized focus on modernizing the Air Force’s mobility fleet, but success will require sustained funding, institutional discipline and meaningful industry collaboration to prepare for the future fight. 

“Right now the C-5’s mission capability rate is about 37 percent and the C-17’s mission capability rate is at 75 percent, so the mobility capacity that TRANSCOM counts on is just not there,” said Lt Gen (Ret) Rick Moore, an Executive Partner at Elara Nova and the former Deputy Chief of Staff for Plans and Programs at U.S. Air Force Headquarters. “We’ve been at war in the desert for over 35 years and have been able to move everything to and through Europe and the Middle East without contested supply lines. But that will almost assuredly not be the case in the Pacific.”  

As both the C-5 and C-17 fleets continue to age, it will become increasingly difficult to maintain the required parts and components to keep them operating. At the same time, a future fight in the Pacific will only heighten demand on these legacy platforms.  

These converging concerns prompted the Air Force’s RFI for NGAL in June. 

“The Air Force’s request for information is for a single airplane to replace both the C-5 and the C-17, which will probably look more like a C-17 than a C-5,” Lt Gen (Ret) Moore said. “The plan calls for NGAL to be ready to fly by 2038 and have an initial operational capability by 2041. The C-5 replacements will start in about 2050 and the C-17 replacements should finish by about 2075. But that transition timeline is still far away, particularly considering the C-5’s are now languishing at a high 30s mission capability rate.” 

Next Generation Airlift RFI Weighs Autonomous Technology and Cost 

Air Force leaders are also looking to leverage recent technological advances so that NGAL can not only lift off semi-prepared and austere airstrips, but also potentially fly autonomously. 

“Autonomous and uncrewed capabilities give the Air Force optionality, particularly if there’s a known hazard in the operating environment,” said Gen (Ret) Jackie Van Ovost, Senior Principal Advisor at Elara Nova and the former Commander of U.S. Transportation Command. “An uncrewed NGAL would remove crew safety concerns. But it’s also important to remember that these are not attritable airplanes, so NGAL will require a defensive capability and a command-and-control architecture to survive operations in a high threat region.” 

NGAL Program’s Biggest Risk: Air Force Budget Constraints 

A single platform with both crewed and uncrewed options will be a significant investment for the Air Force, putting additional pressure on the service’s budget that will likely require programmers to make trade-offs.  

“I would argue a single NGAL would cost about $350 million to include the airframe, the spares, the ground support equipment and the training systems required to field and sustain it over decades,” said Lt Gen (Ret) Jon “Ty” Thomas, an Executive Partner at Elara Nova and the former Deputy Commander of Air Mobility Command and Pacific Air Forces. “That means building ten airplanes, or nearly a full squadron, will cost roughly $3.5 billion in Fiscal Year 2026 money. Then factor in the clean sheet design, defending it in front of OSW and getting it appropriated on the Hill likely means this program will require a multi-year procurement contract, which would limit budget flexibility for the Air Force.” 

That’s why Lt Gen (Ret) Moore contends that one of the biggest risks to building NGAL is doing so while still flying the C-5 and C-17s during the transition.  

“If NGAL is expected to replace the C-5s and C-17s at a one-for-one rate, there’s a high risk that the Air Force budget won’t be able to support both flying those platforms and developing NGAL simultaneously,” he said. “The real budgetary costs for the C-5 and C-17 are in the depots required to maintain them. That means the Air Force needs to look outside the service to find what capacity absorbers are out there in industry so it can bring the C-5 fleet down before NGAL starts to deliver.” 

But with budgetary constraints, there is also an opportunity to leverage private capital resources to offset those constraints.  

“The Deputy Secretary of War has said he would like to see between one-third and two-thirds of the new capability development costs to be funded by industry,” Lt Gen (Ret) Moore said. “One of the most powerful ways the government is engaging that opportunity is through the Office of Strategic Capital, which has the authority to put out $250 billion in guaranteed loans. That will have a profound impact on research and development for something that is dual-use by nature, like airlift capacity, and that’s where OSC and private capital can make a big difference together.” 

An Industry Study to Equip Large Aircraft with Defense Mechanisms 

NGAL and other mobility platforms, like air-refuelers, are expected to be increasingly targeted as they operate in hostile air spaces. Consequently, the Air Force has recently requested funding for – and begun contracting with – industry partners on a research and development program for Large Aircraft Survivability Systems (LASS) to enhance defensive mechanisms for both air-refuelers and airlifters alike. 

“Operations Midnight Hammer and Epic Fury have shown that tankers and airlift platforms are vulnerable to ground-to-air, air-to-air or air-to-ground attack,” Gen (Ret) Van Ovost said. “The modern threat is no longer single shot issues, but a complex web of multi-domain attack vectors. So the Air Force needs a layered defensive web around both of these airplanes, to include kinetic and non-kinetic layers, onboard sensors to alert the crew to maneuver or reduce their signature, as well as an electronic warfare capability and a kinetic effector.”  

LASS is the latest example of the Air Force engaging its industry partners early to develop innovative solutions that meet the evolving requirements of modern warfare.  

“We saw the Air Force take a different approach to engaging industry when it came to developing the Collaborative Combat Aircraft,” Lt Gen (Ret) Moore said. “Instead of defining a requirement and having industry build to it, the Air Force asked industry what would be possible for CCAs. These industry studies are a way of incentivizing innovation, which means the chances that the Air Force gets a truly innovative capability is much higher.” 

The Air Force is requesting $508 million over the next five budget cycles to fund the LASS program, but more meaningful and sustained funding from Congress will be necessary to bring the LASS solutions to fruition.  

“$508 million is a drop in the bucket for fielding a kinetic effector on a mobility platform,” Lt Gen (Ret) Thomas said. “The opponent also cannot target you if they cannot detect you in the first place. So the Air Force also needs to ask industry for increased connectivity and a C2 system that will allow situational awareness and enable the crew to manage the platform’s signature in passive ways. Those are less expensive solutions than kinetic effectors, while also enabling greater progress for large aircraft survivability within a smaller budget.” 

A Critical Need for Sustained Funding  

While two similar but tangential efforts, both the NGAL and LASS efforts demonstrate how recent conflicts have exposed the need to revitalize and modernize the Air Force’s mobility fleet.  

“There is a strategic urgency for these capabilities because the Air Force needs to maintain its ability to deploy and sustain forces around the globe at a time and place of their choosing,” Gen (Ret) Van Ovost said. “The Air Force has had that capability for 75 years without issue, but today’s operational environment has changed. The bridge strategy between the C-5 and C-17s and NGAL matters because these systems will be deployed in denied environments in the Pacific and around the world. It reinforces the imperative that these systems be interoperable and integrated with the joint force to ensure the deployment and sustainment mission.” 

But fielding an innovative platform like NGAL, with the defensive mechanisms realized through the LASS research and development program, will require financial commitment from the Air Force in order to succeed.  

“Industry leaders should pay attention to capabilities that the Air Force is interested in, but also what capabilities the service is actually committing to in the budget,” Lt Gen (Ret) Moore said. “Both the NGAL and LASS efforts demonstrate the Air Force’s commitment to explore innovative solutions, but neither of them currently have committed procurement dollars behind them. That means the Air Force has acknowledged these capabilities are necessary for a future fight, but still needs to commit to funding these solutions to make them a reality.” 

As a strategic advisory firm, Elara Nova’s Aeronautics & Mission Systems team is positioned to help the government and industry partners navigate the technological and financial challenges facing the Air Force as it seeks to modernize its mobility fleet.  

“Elara Nova has partnerships that help companies navigate opportunities with the Office of Strategic Capital,” Lt Gen (Ret) Moore said. “We also have a team that focuses on NATO and international partners who can be key players, as well. Just looking at the development costs and the ability to share those across allies and partners to support procurement beyond just the U.S. Air Force could be another important way to get a program across the finish line.” 

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