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From GSSAP to RG-XX: Space Force Bringing “Solution-Diversity” to Space Domain Awareness
Commercial SSA Data to be added to the SDA Mission
The United States Space Force is looking to add commercial capabilities to its space domain awareness (SDA) mission. For decades, the SDA mission was driven by space situational awareness (SSA) data from military-operated constellations like the Geosynchronous Space Situational Awareness Program (GSSAP) and the Space Based Space Surveillance (SBSS) system. These legacy programs leveraged space situational awareness data to support a space domain awareness understanding of the evolving threat environment in space. Now, the Space Force is engaging commercial space companies to develop a new program, currently known as RG-XX, which is widely viewed as bringing solution-diversity to the space domain awareness mission.
“SBSS and GSSAP are two of the earliest programs to operationalize space situational awareness data from on-orbit capabilities,” said Col (Ret) Ken Bowling, a partner at Elara Nova. “Space situational awareness is knowing where a space object came from the day it was launched, and maintaining track custody for the entirety of its lifetime. Meanwhile, space domain awareness is overlaid against the kill chain concept: it’s about understanding the behaviors and intent of space objects across all orbital regimes, which is especially important when you’re attributing the source of an attack and enabling your warning systems.”
An Evolving Threat Environment in Space
SBSS and GSSAP essentially function as a “neighborhood watch” in both geosynchronous and sun-synchronous orbits, respectively. Together, they help the Space Force develop a space domain awareness picture that tracks and characterizes man-made objects operating in space.
But the same evolving threat environment in space that triggered the founding of the Space Force, also means the Department of War’s newest military service must expand its resources to better understand, prepare for and respond to, existing and emerging threats.
“Previously, your satellite only had to survive a tough but relatively benign environment: temperature changes, radiation, micrometeorite hits, etc.,” Bowling said. “But almost no thought was put into your satellite operationally surviving a kinetic or even non-kinetic attack. Programs such as GSSAP and SBSS play a role in that warfighting construct. Now, RG-XX could become something different, but it will be a space domain awareness tool that includes the potential for commercial vendors to provide that capability.”
The evolving threat and counterspace landscape include kinetic threats like direct-ascent anti-satellite weapons (ASATs) and non-kinetic threats like cyber and electromagnetic warfare attacks that can compromise a satellite’s operations. As a result, the Space Force and its commercial partners are beginning to think differently about how they build and manufacture their satellites to ensure resilience against these emerging threats.
“The commercial space industry has a business model predicated on satellites succumbing to the environmental effects of space, particularly the radiation,” Bowling said. “When their satellites fail, that’s an opportunity to upgrade the next replacement satellite with new technology. But that’s an operating mindset for a benign environment, like changing a tire. When my car’s tire wears out, I’ll just put on a new tire. But that does not translate into military operations.”
Changing Requirements for Space Acquisition
Now, Bowling acknowledges that the analogy of changing a car tire is a loose one. But nonetheless, the point remains that the Space Force is similarly developing and implementing its own DOTMILPF, a framework known as Doctrine, Organization, Training, Materiel, Leadership and Education, Personnel, and Facilities. DOTMILPF is a policy approach that other military services have leveraged effectively to procure and acquire weapons systems for military operations.
“When the Army, Navy and Air Force design weapons systems, they know those weapons systems are going to be engaged by hostile forces in their natural environment,” Bowling said. “Now, in space we not only have to consider operational satellites attacking other satellites in space, but also adversary effects coming from one domain into the space domain, like a ground-launched ASAT.”
That’s why the Space Force is exploring new ways to better protect its assets on-orbit, similar to how tanks and mine-resistant ambush protected vehicles (MRAPV) are designed to withstand attacks on land.
“In a best-case scenario, a car tire can run on a flat, but tank treads and MRAPVs can take a rocket propelled grenade (RPG) round and still keep going,” Bowling said. “That’s the difference between the drive mechanisms built for military uses, versus commercial or personal use. Today, our satellites are not much more hardened than a car tire. We have very little defensive mechanisms to protect them, other than to attribute an attack to a specific adversary because we had custody of that object until it attacked us.”
While the challenge of hardening space technologies from attack is far more complex than simply reinforcing a car tire to withstand an RPG round, the analogy still reinforces that as it stands today, SSA and SDA data is one of the few tools available to protect and defend Space Force assets on-orbit.
However, the wide-ranging set of threat vectors in space is further challenging the Space Force and its partners about how to design and manufacture the next generation of satellites.
“You could theoretically put armor on a satellite to protect it from a kinetic strike, but even that would be difficult because even a paint fleck traveling seven kilometers per second in low-Earth orbit can cause significant damage,” Bowling said. “Then there’s non-kinetic effects: how do you protect your satellite’s sensors from electromagnetic effects? These are just some of the threat vectors the Space Force is exploring as part of the requirements process.”
Other solutions are being considered, as RG-XX will be the first Space Force program to require a refueling capability. But even then, developing similar solutions are uniquely challenging in the space domain.
“Satellites carry fuel on board to adjust their orbits, but what if they have to maneuver to avoid a collision or to avoid an adversary?” Bowling said. “There’s a lot of talk about on-orbit refueling. But if satellites are designed to be refueled, then they have to have a common interface standard like a KC-135’s refueling probe. Otherwise, you have to think about launching another satellite to repair a damaged one or replenish the capability altogether with a whole new satellite.”
Consequently, as the Space Force develops its warfighting mindset for the evolving space domain, the military service is re-evaluating how it optimizes the development and procurement of its assets.
“Weapon system acquirers are trained to optimize for three pillars: cost, schedule and performance,” Bowling said. “Space systems are expensive and take a long time to develop because they’re simply too important to fail. But we’ve realized that some space technology is already becoming obsolete by the time we’re even putting it on-orbit. So Moore’s Law, which says technology rapidly changes every couple of years, is a persistent challenge.”
Engaging Commercial for Solution-Diversity
The imperative to adapt is driving the Space Force to further engage commercial partners for new and innovative solutions. Despite having unique needs for maintaining SSA data around on-orbit assets, there are opportunities for the Space Force to benefit from the information a commercial space company can provide.
“A commercial satellite might have three or four cameras documenting what’s going on around them for potential insurance liability claims,” Bowling said. “Now, the Space Force doesn’t care about insurance liabilities, but they care about whether a satellite’s failure is the result of an adversary’s attack or threatens the freedom of operations in space. So if a commercial company can provide SSA data to the warfighter on-demand, then the warfighter may benefit from that.”
Now, the Space Force is actively engaging with commercial space companies to gauge their interest in providing SSA data to the broader space domain awareness mission. In August, the Space Force held an industry day that brought out over 150 companies who expressed interest in RG-XX, which aligns well with Major General Stephen Purdy’s publicly-expressed intention of taking a multi-vendor approach to the program.
“It’s dangerous for the Department of War to be solely dependent on a single vendor for any critical technology, and so industry days are set up to get feedback about different approaches, trade-offs or requirements,” Bowling said. “If you have multiple vendors, the inherent competition hopefully drives better price solutions for the Space Force. But this solution-diversity also complicates the adversary’s decision-making by driving up their cost for a more advanced offensive capability.”
While the specific details of RG-XX remain to be determined, Bowling asserts that the Space Force’s approach to the space domain awareness mission is evolving in two distinct ways.
“One: the Space Force knows that the information GSSAP provides is critical to the warfighting capabilities they need moving forward. Two: the Space Force is going into this RG-XX program with the notion that it is both possible and reasonable for commercial capabilities to be included in the pursuit of space domain awareness.”
Now, as more commercial space companies enter the emerging space economy and present their own solutions to the Space Force for programs like RG-XX, Elara Nova stands as an interlocutor to help both the military service and its commercial partners develop the necessary space capabilities of the future.
“Elara Nova has over 90 partners, many of whom have space backgrounds ranging from rocket launch to command and control; payload and satellite development; and operations and sustainment of space capabilities,” Bowling said. “So Elara Nova can provide expertise across the entire spectrum of space operations, from inception to operations and even disposal.”
Elara Nova is a global consultancy and professional services firm focused on helping businesses and government agencies maximize the strategic advantages of the space and aeronautics domain. Learn more at https://elaranova.com/.